Four favourites in General Election in Tipperary but the devil could be in the detail when counting begins

A cursory glance at the both Tipperary constituencies in the General Election would tell you that there are four clear favourites who are most likely to get elected when the dust settles on the election count over the weekend.

Expected to top the polls are Independent stalwarts Michael Lowry in Tipperary North and Mattie McGrath in Tipperary South. Michael Lowry has topped the polls in his last 6 General Elections and most recently in 2020 he was elected in the first count after receiving 14,802 first preference votes. He was the only candidate to best Mattie McGrath in the past two elections but with the county now divided with Lowry in the North and Mattie McGrath representing South, McGrath should comfortably take that first seat in Tipperary South. 

The Labour Party's Alan Kelly seems poised for the next spot after the two Independents. Kelly is a sitting TD with a strong campaign behind him and after a good year for Labour in Tipperary he seems almost certain to secure the next seat in the county. Alan Kelly has been a TD since 2011 when he won the third seat in Tipperary North, in 2016's full county vote he just got in after claiming the sixth seat and in 2020 he took the fourth of five seats on count nine. 

Mayor of Clonmel, Fine Gael's Michael Murphy will likely take the next seat in Tipperary South. In the local elections earlier this year, he comfortably led the pack in the Clonmel Local Electoral Area and is expected to repeat his good performance with voters in the Clonmel area. 

If it were all easy, there'd be no need for the nearly 140,000 voters across Tipperary to cast their ballots today. But we are casting our votes and, if we've learned nothing else over the years, we know that elections are about as predictable as the Irish weather and the remaining seats are much less of a certainty.

One major difference between this election and 2020 is that the county is now split into North and South. A number of the candidates such as Michael Lowry and Mattie McGrath would have received a significant number of votes from voters who are no longer part of their constituency. These votes will now be spread out, certainly many of Lowry's votes will go to Mattie McGrath and vice versa but other candidates are certain to pick up the surplus. 

Another significant difference is that Jackie Cahill who took the sixth seat in 2020 with nearly 8,000 votes is not running this time around. In his place are two Fianna Fáil councillors, Cllr Ryan O'Meara and Cllr Michael Smith. Cllr Michael Smith previously ran against Jackie in 2016 and Smith came in 7th place overall. Cllr O'Meara on the other hand at 29 years old is a newcomer to the race, a political protogé of Jackie Cahill's he's expected to get a large number of what would have been Jackie's votes but many will also surely go to Smith. If the bookies were to be believed, Smith has the edge but with O'Meara being as of yet untested, it's certainly up in the air. 

The final sitting TD in the race is Cashel's Martin Browne of Sinn Féin. Though he took the third seat in 2020, beating both Alan Kelly and Jackie Cahill, the tide has since changed on Sinn Féin and the party don't have quite the same momentum that they did four year's ago. Paired with competition from another young newcomer in Independent John O'Heney, his seat is certainly most at risk of all the sitting TDs'.

Seamus Healy and Imelda Goldsboro are the only other candidates in the Tipperary race this year that also ran in 2020, both have a good shot at the third seat in Tipperary South which seems certain to be the most competitive race in the county. 

A curveball may come in the form of transfers, Tipperary North has 14 candidates and Tipperary South has 12 candidates. Most of those running are not from current Government parties and many of their campaigns are based on getting the current Government out of power so as the counts progress we may see a large number of votes from the smaller parties and independents coalescing to move in the same direction and perhaps boost up an unlikely candidate. 

Having said all of the above, the more likely outcome after a close battle at times is Mattie McGrath and Michael Murphy taking first and second place in Tipperary South and Michael Lowry and Alan Kelly taking the same spots in the North. Tipperary North's third seat will likely be taken by Fianna Fáil whereas Tipperary South will probably see more of a battle for the final place.